The Morning: Homeless in America

The origins of the problem go back decades.

Today, we look at the causes of homelessness in the U.S. — David Leonhardt

Good morning. America's homelessness crisis is getting worse.

A homeless encampment in Los Angeles.Mark Abramson for The New York Times

A housing shortfall

America's homelessness problem has the makings of an acute crisis.

Shelters across the U.S. are reporting a surge in people looking for help, with wait lists doubling or tripling in recent months. The number of homeless people outside of shelters is also probably rising, experts say. Some of them live in encampments, which have popped up in parks and other public spaces in major cities from Washington, D.C., to Seattle since the pandemic began.

And inflation is compounding the problem: Rent has increased at its fastest rate since 1986, putting houses and apartments out of reach for more Americans.

The crisis means more people do not know where they will sleep tonight. Living in the streets, people are exposed to more crime, violence and bad weather, including extreme heat. They can lose their job in the chaos of homelessness, and they often struggle to find another one without access to the internet or a mailing address. "There's a certain posture that you take when you are homeless," Ivan Perez, who lived in a tent in Los Angeles, told The Times. "You lose your dignity."

Homelessness has become a particularly bad political problem for the Democrats who govern big cities, where it is most visible. It has played a role in recent elections, like the recall of San Francisco's district attorney last month. More Americans now say they worry a great deal about homelessness compared with the years before the pandemic.

The origins of the current homelessness crisis go back decades — to policies that stopped the U.S. from building enough housing, experts said. Seven million extremely low-income renters cannot get affordable homes, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

Today's newsletter will look at how the country got to this point.

Single-family housing construction in Charlotte, N.C.Travis Dove for The New York Times

Supply and demand

No factor matters more to homelessness than access to housing. Poverty, mental illness, addiction and other issues do play roles, but they are less significant.

Many cities and states in the Midwest and South, for example, have higher rates of mental illness, poverty or addiction than other parts of the U.S., but they have similar or lower rates of homelessness. "What explains regional variation is housing market conditions," said Gregg Colburn, a housing expert at the University of Washington.

Housing researchers use the example of musical chairs: Imagine there are 10 people for nine chairs. One person, weighed down by poor health, does not make it to a chair. Is the problem that person's health or the lack of chairs?

Homelessness, then, is a supply-and-demand problem. Without enough housing, not everyone has a place to live. And the homes that do exist cost more as people compete for limited supply. So more people are priced out, and more end up homeless.

Policy failures

Policymakers have made the crisis worse, instituting laws and zoning rules that limit the number of available homes.

Consider California. Los Angeles County allocates 76 percent of its residential land to single-family housing, while the San Francisco Bay Area allocates 85 percent. Historically, this has made it difficult to build more housing: Most plots are reserved for only one family, instead of duplexes or apartment buildings that can house many more.

Homeowners also often protest proposed housing, effectively blocking it. They fear that more housing, particularly for low-income families, will change the makeup of their communities or reduce the value of their homes.

In San Francisco, for example, protests recently stopped a project to convert a 131-room Japantown hotel into housing units for homeless people.

The combination of zoning rules and local protests has added to a housing deficit year after year, as growing populations have outpaced new homes built. Now, California has 23 available affordable homes for every 100 extremely low-income renters — among the worst rates of any state.

What's next

Some cities and states have begun confronting the issue. California and Oregon passed laws in recent years to effectively end single-family zoning. But homelessness took decades to get to this level, and it will probably take years to fully address.

And while homelessness is largely associated with Democratic-run cities in Democratic-run states, that appears to be changing as more Americans flock to the Sun Belt and the West. If traditionally red states in these areas repeat the same mistakes as their coastal counterparts, they could set themselves up for a crisis in the future.

Related: The housing shortage in the U.S. isn't just a coastal crisis anymore.

THE LATEST NEWS

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International
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Opinions

The targeting of an Indiana doctor shows the peril of being a heath care provider in post-Roe America, Tracey Wilkinson writes.

Brittney Griner's plight deserves more attention, Roxane Gay argues.

Forgotten moderates and crossover Democrats can save Liz Cheney, says Susan Stubson.

The Webb telescope restored (some of) Farhad Manjoo's faith in humanity.

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Mon Dieu: A mustard shortage in France.

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Advice from Wirecutter: The truth about sunscreen.

Lives Lived: As a young chemist, John Froines was acquitted on charges of inciting a riot at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. He later became an environmental justice advocate. He died at 83.

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

How the Knicks can land a superstar: New York has the pieces to pull off a trade for the Jazz's Donovan Mitchell. Fred Katz says it will have to be a historic haul.

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Is the Rory Curse dead? Rory McIlroy is once again off to a hot start in a major — can he break through for the first time since 2014? History looks favorably upon the notion.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Superhero fatigue?

Some 29 Marvel Cinematic Universe movies have premiered since 2008 — an average of almost two per year. In those 14 years, critics predicted that audiences would eventually get tired of superhero movies. In The Times, one media analyst warned of "superhero fatigue" in 2011. Asked about it last year, a quarter of U.S. adults said they enjoyed superhero movies but were getting tired of them.

But that sentiment is not reflected at the box office. "Thor: Love and Thunder" opened last weekend and earned $302 million worldwide, grossing more in its U.S. debut than previous Thor movies. Earlier this year, "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" made $954 million worldwide. And 2021's "Spider-Man: No Way Home" finished its run at $1.9 billion.

Next up: "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" this November. Its 2018 predecessor made $1.3 billion.

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
Linda Xiao for The New York Times

This sous-chef salad includes vegetables, canned tuna and hard-boiled eggs.

What to Read

"Bad City," about sex scandals at the University of Southern California, is "a master class in investigative journalism."

What to Watch

The heroine of the thriller "She Will" is on a journey of revenge and renewal.

Take the Quiz
Now Time to Play

The pangrams from yesterday's Spelling Bee were vibrato and vibrator. Here is today's puzzle.

Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Petty emotion (five letters).

And here's today's Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German

P.S. The Times and Hasbro are creating a board game based on Wordle.

"The Daily" is about the James Webb Space Telescope. On "The Ezra Klein Show," a discussion about climate change. The Modern Love podcast is about a mother's secret.

Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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