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Daily Brew

Cariuma

Good morning. Today is the Smithsonian magazine's Museum Day, so if you don't have any plans, we suggest heading to a museum and nodding your head at words you don't understand. If you need a few recs (for today or for the future), here are our favorite museums: 

  • Matty: The International Quilt Museum in Lincoln, NE, is as beautiful as it is cozy.
  • Neal: The Vienna Museum of Science and Technology for machines big and small.
  • Jamie: The National Archives museum is a great place to steal the Declaration of Independence.

Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, Jamie Wilde

MARKETS

NASDAQ

15,043.97

S&P 500

4,432.99

DOW

34,584.88

Bitcoin

$47,130.06

10-year

1.371%

Facebook

$364.72

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Investors want you to wake them up when this month ends. The Dow closed lower for a third-straight week, its longest weekly losing streak since...last September. Big Tech also dragged down the S&P and Nasdaq this week.
  • Defense: The Pentagon acknowledged that it killed 10 Afghan civilians, including seven children, in an August 29 drone strike intended to take out an Islamic State target—a stark reversal of its earlier position. 

COVID

OK Boomers, You Can Probably Get a Booster Shot

Vaccine boosters launching with a rocket

Francis Scialabba

Seniors already get extra perks. Soon they could get an extra prick. 

An FDA advisory panel recommended giving a third shot of Pfizer-BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine to Americans 65 and older, as well as others who may be especially at risk from the disease.

BUT, the committee overwhelmingly voted against Pfizer booster shots for the general public by a count of 16–2. That decision throws a wrench in the Biden administration's plans to roll out boosters to US adults beginning next week.

Important note: The FDA advisory committee ≠ the FDA. But the FDA often follows through on the committee's recommendations, and it's expected to hand down its own ruling ASAP. Then, the CDC will figure out the specifics of the rollout plan when it meets next week.

On boosters, experts disagree to disagree

Key public health officials have been bickering about boosters like a couple who can't agree on the house temperature.

Last month, President Biden said the booster shot rollout would begin Sept. 20, but some health experts (including two senior FDA officials) pushed back, saying there wasn't enough data yet to show a third shot was necessary.

Other loud voices have urged the US to add a third shot to the standard vaccine regimen—voices like the vaccine makers themselves. Both Moderna and Pfizer released data this week that showed their vaccines' effectiveness diminishes over time. 

  • "There is a clear erosion of vaccine protection over time against Covid-19, and emerging data indicates a loss of protection against hospitalization," Pfizer's William Gruber told the committee. 

Booster boosters also point to data from Israel, a country that has given booster shots to nearly 3 million people in the past several months. Health officials there credit boosters with preventing a hospitalization crisis during the country's recent wave.

Looking ahead...we're going to do this all over again on the questions of whether boosters should be used for Moderna's and J&J's vaccines.

        

SUPPLY CHAIN

One-day Shipping, Give or Take 70 Days

TOPSHOT - Cargo ships are seen of the port of Long Beach in Long Beach, ...

Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images

Global supply chain update: Still broken. The queue of container ships waiting to enter Los Angeles's and Long Beach's neighboring ports hit an all-time high of 65 vessels this past week, and they'll wait an average of 8.7 days to deliver their cargo.

The average transit time from China to the US is now 71 days, compared to 40 days in 2019...and you thought driving from Silver Lake to Malibu was rough.

Why it matters: These California ports are the busiest in the US, and they accept the majority of imports from Asia. A snag outside their docks signals an economy-wide slowdown in getting goods → consumers.

18 months on, Covid is still nightmare fuel for logistics

  • Shampoo: Covid-19 worker restrictions in Malaysia have caused the price of palm oil, a key ingredient in everything from biofuel to shampoo, to skyrocket as much as 70%.
  • Coffee: Travel restrictions in Vietnam are making coffee beans more expensive for companies like Folgers and Peet's.

Looking ahead...Santa's elves stationed at Target, Best Buy, and other retailers are scrambling for extra inventory in an effort to keep their shelves stocked for the holiday season.

        

REAL ESTATE

A Chinese Real Estate Giant Is About to Burst

Police officers look at people gathering at the Evergrande headquarters ...

Noel Celis/Getty Images

Evergrande, a giant Chinese real estate development group and not Ariana's new container ship, is thiiiis (imagine our fingers super close together) close to collapsing. The company is currently $300 billion in debt and has warned investors that it might not be able to get out of this one without defaulting.

After news spread of the company's mounting debt, investors showed up at the company's Shenzhen headquarters beginning late last week demanding money they're owed from the firm. With 200k employees and 1,300+ developments across China, Evergrande is also facing protests from homebuyers and employees who fear that the housing market will collapse as a result.

Zoom out: In Evergrande's implosion, some are seeing echoes of US bank Lehman Brothers's bankruptcy 13 years ago. That company's collapse affected economies around the world and contributed to the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. So there's some concern that Evergrande's condition could rattle markets elsewhere...though that hasn't happened yet.

Other analysts say the comparisons to Lehman Brothers are overblown and that the Chinese government will probably, begrudgingly, step in to prevent Evergrande from triggering a broader meltdown.

        

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With colors like sand and grey canvas, you'll be turning heads while you strut your stuff in a pair of these crazy comfortable, minimalist-chic kicks. They're the A-list of footwear. They're the magnum opus of sneakers. 

In fact, they just got off a 26k waitlist (read: Get yours ASAP).

But that's not the only reason you're gonna want to peep CARIUMA's OCA sneaks. As always, CARIUMAs are Mother Earth friendly and made from organic cotton canvas and ethically sourced suede for an ultra-comfy fit.

You won't be able to keep your love of these kicks to yourself, especially once you learn that Brew readers get a very special offer

And that's a big (read: ginormous) deal because these shoes never (ever) go on sale. 

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GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

Whoop's message on a circuit board

Whoop

Quote: "Don't bother copying us. We will win."

Fitness wearable company Whoop, recently valued at $3.6 billion, left a message for Amazon on every 4.0 circuit board. 

Stat: Iron prices fell 20% this week for their worst weekly drop since the financial crisis in 2008. What happened? Once again, it's all about China. The government is placing curbs on steel production, so a lot less iron ore is needed. 

Read: Why we need to start thinking about concrete. (Ed Conway)

        

ART

Spotify Isn't the Only Thing That Can Be Wrapped

The Arc de Triomphe is seen 'wrapped' in homage to late artist Christo in Paris, France

Julien Mattia/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Paris's Arc de Triomphe has been transformed into an epic art installation inspired by Christo and Jeanne-Claude, now-deceased artists known for their larger-than-life pieces (like The Gates in NYC's Central Park).

The famous arch commissioned by Napoleon has been wrapped in 270,000 square feet of sliver-blue fabric, held in place by nearly two miles of red rope. The idea is 60 years in the making—Christo first dreamed it up when he was living in a nearby apartment in 1961.

  • The project, which cost $16.5 million, is being paid for through the sale of Christo's drawings, scale models, and other works. 

Visit it while you can...the installation will be open for only 16 days.

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • France is recalling its ambassadors from the US and Australia, taking its rage over being left out of a nuclear submarine pact to the next level.
  • Sears is closing its last store in its home state of Illinois.
  • Nona Gaprindashvili, a pioneering female chess grandmaster, is suing Netflix over a scene in The Queen's Gambit in which an announcer said she never faced men (she did, and beat many). Gaprindashvili is seeking millions in damages.
  • The Intuit Dome will be the new home of the LA Clippers, after the fintech company bought the naming rights to the team's yet-to-be-built stadium in Inglewood, CA.

SPONSORED BY PRUDENTIAL

Prudential

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Weekend Conversation Starters:

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Middle market activity at full capacity

Also: IoT is finally maturing; Fintech reaching unbelieving highs in dealmaking, exit activity; Sneak peek of our Sustainable Investing Survey Report!
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The Research Pitch
September 18, 2021
Challenges remain, but PE middle market activity keeps an unprecedented pace
The US PE middle market kept roaring along in Q2, posting a third straight record-breaking quarter for dealmaking activity.

GDP growth, the impending capital gains tax hike, and an ample supply of debt from direct lenders continued to drive a risk-on environment for capital deployment.

Many investment banks' pipelines are now full through the end of the year.

The breakneck pace of capital deployment has also compressed the fundraising cycle. Firms are rapidly returning to market with new funds.

To be sure, we're also watching some storm clouds on the horizon.

One is the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which has slowed economic recovery, especially for smaller businesses. As a result, we're seeing fewer small companies exit to strategics than we'd otherwise expect.

Another is intense labor shortages in industries from manufacturing to hospitality to healthcare.

This is driving consolidation and creating deal opportunities for companies that can improve hiring and retention or automate low-skilled jobs.

Finally, although the outlook for emerging managers has improved relative to 2020, fundraising competition remains fierce for many smaller and younger firms, as LPs look to simplify their commitments and the largest firms launch more middle-market products.

Despite these challenges, we expect runaway dealmaking to continue—even accelerate—through the end of 2021: We also dive into how ESG themes are beginning to play a greater role in mid-market buyout strategies.

Feel free to reach out with any questions or feedback, or if you would like to discuss the research.
 
Best,

Rebecca Springer, PhD
Analyst, Private Equity
Share:   Email    LinkedIn    Twitter    Facebook
Where IoT use cases are growing and VC funding is lagging
IoT is finally maturing.

That's the industry consensus, considering the false starts of years past and recent catalyst of pandemic-spurred digital transformation.

In a high-growth industry, we expect to see a high rate of reinvestment in innovation and M&A. Also, revenue should grow for data analytics vendors that make sense of the mass of newly deployed devices.

Our data suggests that promising startups are struggling to scale and achieve significant exits, with the greatest valuation growth in the IoT VC ecosystem flowing from adjacent markets including information security and semiconductors.

Our latest IoT research revises our growth forecasts and deal tracking statistics, finding that all subsegments are bouncing back from pandemic lows in revenue growth.

Manufacturing & supply chain and connected vehicles continue to stand out, given these sectors' roles in the reopening of the economy.

The data identifies the sensor and software applications that startups are best positioned to address. We also assess where strategic investors are most closely focused.

In particular, we find IoT/OT security, edge AI (with some techniques referred to as TinyML), and predictive maintenance are fueling high valuation growth for startups.

Our select company highlights open a window on the influence of these trends for leading private companies. Industrial analytics unicorn Uptake is emerging from a period of low growth to take advantage of digital transformation.

Ambiq Micro is embracing the edge AI opportunity with its low-power microcontrollers. And Samsara is finding connected vehicles an anchor for its smart cameras and industrial IoT software.

Our full analysis and data are available to clients only, but non-clients can read an executive summary.

If you have a PitchBook log-in, get the research here.

Don't hesitate to reach out to discuss any of these topics or companies further.
 
Best,

Brendan Burke
Senior Analyst, Emerging Technology
Share:   Email    LinkedIn    Twitter    Facebook
Emerging Tech Research
FINTECH: These days, the numbers around VC and fintech are simply staggering.

More than $30 billion was deployed into the space last quarter alone, which soared past the previous record set in Q1.

Exit activity has been equally jaw-dropping, as capital exited in the first half of the year exceeded the previous decade-plus combined.

Our new client-only research captures the key highlights but also identifies new opportunities emerging in the wide world of fintech:
  • While Brex and others have developed expense and cash management platforms, treasury automation startups provide a more holistic view of a company's finances with features like continuous cash forecasting, transaction categorization and automatic reconciliation.

  • In a world where speed and convenience are increasingly important, we expect faster checkout solutions to become prevalent at any point of sale, both virtual and in stores.

  • Startups providing core banking technology can penetrate the highly concentrated legacy services by providing cloud-native, API-based solutions to banks seeking to modernize.
read an executive summary
 
CLOUDTECH/DEVOPS: The growth of cloud computing continues to create opportunities for the startups helping businesses build, deploy and scale software applications and infrastructure.

Our latest client-only DevOps research dives into this important subset of the enterprise tech:
  • After another massive quarter for VC investment, this year's aggregate capital raised has already surpassed 2020's total and is on pace to set an extraordinarily high annual record.

  • The rise of container adoption is driving more management complexity. GitOps has emerged as one approach to help scale the use of containers, but it remains relatively nascent.
read an executive summary
 
Webinars & Events
A few more speaking engagements for your calendar:
  • Sept. 24: Analysts Rebecca Springer and Hilary Wiek will speak at a Born Global event that discusses the topics of emerging, diverse, and impact managers. Details here.

  • Sept. 28: Join our EMEA private capital analysts Nalin Patel and Dominick Mondesir as they cover how and why the European VC and PE environments are already setting records this year. Register here.

  • Oct. 6: How are PE strategies changing around healthcare services? We're hosting a webinar with professionals from The Bloom Organization, McGuireWoods and Bailey Southwell & Co. Register here.
Deal Commentary
AI & machine learning analyst Brendan Burke weighs in on 3D Systems' $180 million acquisition of Oqton, an AI-powered software company that serves the manufacturing industry.

"This acquisition deal value is the highest we have tracked in industrial AI during 2021.

"Oqton uses AI to optimize factory assets such as additive manufacturing units—also referred to as 3D printers.

"Manufacturing assets along assembly lines have distinct software programs that can be orchestrated with intelligent automation.

"Prior to this acquisition, Oqton closed the highest Series A deal value in industrial AI we have tracked outside of China since 2017.

"We believe that legacy manufacturing execution systems are focused on neither additive manufacturing nor AI design automation, which creates an opportunity for 3D printing incumbents to develop an operating system for industrial generative design.

"Industry surveys show that manufacturing customers are the leading adopters of AI-enabled IoT strategies.

"3D Systems Management disclosed that the acquisition is not expected to contribute significant revenue in 2021."

 
Brendan Burke

Senior Emerging Technology Analyst
AI & Machine Learning
In the News
Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • Can ultrafast delivery become a sustainable business model? And if so, will consumer demand persist in a post-pandemic world? [WSJ Video]

  • How China quietly grew into a biotech powerhouse. [Insider]

  • Up-and-coming PE managers don't always outperform, but they may have more room for error. [Institutional Investor]

  • Why banks won't be left out when it comes to decentralized fintech. [American Banker Podcast]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
ICYMI
Highlights from our other research content published this quarter:

Market updates Thematic research Emerging Technology Research (free previews) Coming next week (subject to change)
  • NEW: Sustainable Investment Survey Report (sneak peek!)
  • VC Pricing Varies by Ecosystem
  • SPAC Market Update
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