Good morning. The final quarter of 2022 kicks off today, so let's check out your Q4 predictions from our quarterly recap email that was sent on Friday. - 54% of Brew readers think Republicans will take back the Senate.
- 65% said that Elon would not be forced to buy Twitter.
- Whether the S&P 500 would close out the year above or below -20% was split 50/50. (It's at -24.8% now.)
- 53% said the Avatar sequel would have a bigger opening than the Black Panther sequel.
- And as for who's going to win the World Cup, you predicted Brazil, in a landslide. No USMNT believers?
—Neal Freyman | | | |  | Nasdaq | 10,575.62 | | | | | S&P | 3,585.62 | | | | | Dow | 28,725.51 | | |  | 10-Year | 3.829% | | | | | Bitcoin | $19,165.07 | | | | | Oil | $79.99 | | | | *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 9:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. | - Markets: The vibes are so bad on Wall Street that investors worry one of the most iconic stock-market streaks could be snapped. In the year following midterm elections, stocks have gone up every single time since 1942, increasing an average of 15%. While that would be welcome, it's not exactly expected as the Fed shows no signs of slowing down its rate-hiking extravaganza.
- Global economy: The UK is scrapping its plan to remove the 45% top rate of income tax, calling it a huge distraction from other priorities. The plan, which the government defended just yesterday, caused a mini-financial meltdown before the Bank of England stepped in with emergency measures.
| | | | Drew Angerer/Getty Images The Supreme Court begins its new term today, and if you thought its last term was a big deal, this session, which includes blockbuster cases on affirmative action, elections, and religious rights, could be just as monumental. Before getting to those specific cases, you can't ignore the huge cloud that's formed over the once-revered institution. The share of Americans who say they trust the Supreme Court has plunged 20 percentage points in just the last two years to its lowest level on record, according to a new Gallup poll. After May's unprecedented leak of a draft decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and the actual overturning of the long-standing ruling seven weeks later, even the justices themselves have been publicly fretting this summer about Americans' confidence in the Supreme Court. - Liberal Justice Elena Kagan said, in a reference to the three justices appointed by former President Trump, "It just doesn't look like law when, you know, the new judges appointed by a new president come in and just start tossing out the old stuff."
- Chief Justice John Roberts said it was an "unfortunate" year for the court.
So what to expect this year? First, there's a new justice on the bench: Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman to serve on the high court. Nominated by President Biden to replace Stephen Breyer (who retired), she's not going to alter the political makeup of the court, which is tilted 6–3 in favor of conservatives. And, like in the last term, those conservatives could make their mark on a wide range of important issues on the docket, such as… - Environmental regulation: The first case of the term, kicking off today, represents a challenge to the Clean Water Act, which allows the federal government to protect waterways from pollution.
- Voting rights: Tomorrow, the court will hear arguments in a case on racial gerrymandering in Alabama. It could weaken the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965, which protects the democratic rights of Black people and other minorities.
- Affirmative action: The legality of race-conscious admissions programs at Harvard and UNC will be deliberated on Oct. 31. Many corporate giants, including Apple, Meta, Google, and Starbucks, support the universities.
Interested in attending? You can. For the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic began, members of the public will be able to attend oral arguments IRL. | | | Where can we invest when it seems like every asset class is losing money? In a world of high inflation, rising interest rates, and volatile public markets, where can we look for a possible positive investment return? An answer: alternative investments, like private-market real estate with Fundrise. Real estate has historically proven to outperform during inflationary periods. And Fundrise has the returns to back that up. In the first half of 2022, Fundrise outperformed the S&P 500 by 25% with a steady return of 5.5%.* Their $6b+ portfolio is well positioned to capture outperformance resulting from macroeconomic trends, like sky-high mortgage rates causing increased rental demand. Fundrise invests in built-for-rent communities, which means they're adding brand-new rental supply to the market. Fundrise is built for all investors and helps you continue to build wealth, even in a downturn. Join over 300,000 investors and build a better portfolio with Fundrise today. | | Alexandre Schneider/Getty Images  Brazil's election heads to a runoff. In Brazil's most important presidential election in decades, neither former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (aka "Lula") nor incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro got the 50% majority required to win the vote, so it's heading to a second round on Oct. 30. It appears the country is split between two very different candidates: Lula is a leftist who's made a big comeback after being imprisoned for corruption, while Bolsonaro is a far-right populist who largely shrugged off the Covid-19 pandemic and also attacked the integrity of voting systems.
 125 people died after an Indonesian soccer match. In one of the world's worst sports stadium tragedies, 125 people died after a match between Arema FC and Persebaya FC on Saturday. After Arema (the home team) lost, police fired tear gas at rioting fans who had come onto the pitch, leading to panic and a run for the exits. Indonesian President Joko Widodo suspended the soccer league and ordered an investigation.
 Credit Suisse: "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." Leaders at the Swiss bank tried to calm down investors and clients after concerns mounted about its weak financial position, the FT reported. Credit Suisse's stock price has fallen to a record low and spreads on its credit default swaps have spiked, suggesting that investors are worried about it potentially defaulting. CEO Ulrich Körner fired off a memo assuring employees that the bank has a "strong capital base and liquidity position," but it remains in a "critical moment" ahead of a massive overhaul.
| | Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images The economic recovery from Hurricane Ian is going to be extremely slow and downright impossible for some Floridians given just how few homeowners in the hurricane's path had flood insurance. In hard-hit Lee County, home to Fort Myers, just 28% of housing units are covered by flood policies, according to insurance provider Neptune Flood. As you get further inland, to Seminole County and Orlando's Orange County, more than 97% of residences don't have flood insurance. Why not? Flood insurance is only required by lenders in high-risk zones. If you're living away from the coast, you might not get flood insurance because of soaring policy prices, or out of a false belief that flooding is covered by the hurricane coverage in your homeowner's policy (it's not). In fact, the share of homes with flood insurance declined over the past five years in Florida, from 17.8% in 2017 to 15.4% in August, per the WSJ. President Biden has opened up federal aid for people living in nine FL counties, but that only covers the cost of things like minor home repairs. It'll lead to a frustratingly slow and costly rebuild. Big picture: Hurricane Ian could result in $63 billion in insured losses, and that's the last thing Florida's insurance industry needs. The state's property insurance market is already on the brink of collapse following a series of storms and remarkably high litigation rates. | | Steve Pfost/Newsday RM via Getty Images September jobs report: Every part of the US economy appears to be slowing down except for one—the labor market. The jobs report, due Friday, could show that hiring slowed and wages cooled last month. Or…it could not, frustrating the Fed's goal of tamping down inflation. Big oil production cut incoming: The OPEC+ alliance will consider lopping off more than 1 million barrels a day in oil production in a bid to boost prices. That move will anger the White House, which is trying to keep fuel prices from rising. Is this your year? The Nobel Prizes for Literature, Peace, and scientific fields will be awarded this week. Everything else: - President Biden will visit Puerto Rico and Florida this week to survey hurricane damage.
- The MLB playoffs begin on Friday, whether Aaron Judge hits his 62nd homer or not.
- Google's Pixel hardware event is on Thursday.
| | TOGETHER WITH AT&T BUSINESS | | Automation in construction. Watch the first episode of Insider's new United States of Automation series to see how construction timelines are shortening thanks to small but mighty robotic helpers enabled in part by connectivity. Check out how these robots impact supply chains and workforce skill sets + change how things are built in the US. Sponsored by AT&T Business. | | Harlan Schwartz/Getty Images Quote: "We got weights in fish!" Chess isn't the only sport to be rocked by cheating allegations recently. On Friday, a competitive fishing tournament in Cleveland went off the rails after the two winning anglers were found to have loaded up their five fish with lead balls and other items, adding eight pounds of total weight. They were immediately disqualified and stripped of the ~$30,000 prize. You can watch the (intense, expletive-filled) moment the weights were discovered here. Stat: The leaks of the Nord Stream pipelines probably led to the single biggest release of methane on record, according to the UN. Methane is an extremely potent greenhouse gas; while it dissipates much more quickly than carbon dioxide, it has 84x the warming power. This release has the same climate impact over a 20-year period as 5.48 million US cars, Bloomberg calculates. It's also equivalent to ~32% of Denmark's annual emissions discharges. Read: If you wish to make a toaster from scratch, you must first invent the universe. (The Prepared) | | - Ukraine scored its biggest military victory in weeks, taking full control of the logistics hub of Lyman.
- Tesla delivered 343,830 cars globally in Q3, a company record but lower than forecast.
- A New York City lawmaker is proposing a bill that would empower civilians to report cars that block bike lanes.
- A complete timeline of the Mississippi welfare scandal.
| | Dive back into the week: Days since incident: Here's how long it's been since a tsunami, interplanetary shock, and more. The face of change: On the podcast A Slight Change of Plans, cognitive scientist Dr. Maya Shankar helps us understand who we become in the face of transformation with guests like a Theranos whistleblower and civil rights icon Ruby Bridges. Listen now. | | Turntable: How many of the 46 words can you find in the letter jumble? Try here. SNL trivia Saturday Night Live began its 48th season Saturday night. Which SNL cast member has spent the most seasons with the show? Bonus points if you can name the top five. | |  Ditch the internet estimates and let Money With Katie walk you through how much house you can actually afford. Check it out.
📒 There's still time left to build sustainable personal finance habits this year. Get 25% off the 2022 Wealth Planner now until October 11.  This seven-figure business is building better pet products with help from a famous pup. Would you invest? Watch here.
| | | Kenan Thompson, now at 20 seasons (and running), has the longest tenure of any SNL cast member. Darrell Hammond (14 seasons) is in second, Seth Meyers (13) is third, and fourth-place is a tie between Fred Armisen, Kate McKinnon, Al Franken, and Cecily Strong—all at 11 seasons. | | | Written by Neal Freyman Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here. WANT MORE BREW? Industry news, with a sense of humor → - CFO Brew: your go-to source for global finance insights
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