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The war in Ukraine arrives at the half-year mark...
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August 22, 2022 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

Cuts

Good morning. Quick PSA for all the people who started out as employees only to find themselves managing others a few years down the road. It'd be nice if there was a playbook to follow, right?

Well, the Brew has one teed up for the fall. The eight-week Leadership Accelerator will teach you all the Xs and Os to become the manager your entry-level self could never dream of. The next cohort starts in September, so apply today.

Neal Freyman

MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

12,705.22

S&P

4,228.48

Dow

33,706.74

10-Year

2.999%

Bitcoin

$21,427.58

Oil

$90.18

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 10:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

Markets: Despite slumping last week, the S&P has bounced back 15% since its summer low in a broad-based increase—all 11 sectors of the index have been in the green since the beginning of Q3. Investors are split over whether the market has bottomed out or the recent rally is as fleeting as that one 70-degree weather day in January.

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GEOPOLITICS

Car explosion jolts war in Ukraine at the 6-month mark

Russian officials investigate the scene after the car of Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin, Russian political scientist and ally of President Vladimir Putin exploded on Mozhayskoye highway in Moscow. Russian Investigative Committee/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

As the war in Ukraine reaches its six-month mark this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia "may try to do something particularly nasty."

That's because a) Ukraine celebrates its Independence Day on Wednesday and b) on Saturday, the daughter of a prominent Putin ally was killed in a suspected car bombing near Moscow.

Daria Dugina, the victim of the attack, was a journalist who had been sanctioned by the US and the UK in March for running a propaganda website. Her father, Alexander Dugin, is a far-right nationalist who's been called "Putin's brain" for his influence on the Russian president's expansionist policies, including the decision to invade Ukraine in February.

So who was behind the bomb? Russia blamed Ukraine right away, but Ukraine denied any involvement. A criminal investigation is ongoing.

The state of the war

Nearly six months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the war has left thousands of Ukrainian civilians dead, forced millions more to flee as refugees, and bludgeoned a global economy that was already showing signs of slowing down. Here is an update:

1. Operationally, it's a stalemate. While Russia claimed large chunks of new territory in eastern Ukraine in the spring, neither side has been able to make advances, Western officials say. In recent weeks, Ukraine has launched attacks on military sites in Russian-held Crimea, flexing its ability to hit targets behind the front lines and bringing the war closer to home than many Russians had anticipated.

2. Russia's economy is holding up…for now. Following Putin's invasion, Western countries mounted a unified response to cut Russia out of the global economy and cripple its finances. But Russia's economy has proven to be resilient as countries like India and China have boosted their purchases of Russia's exports. Russian oil production was only less than 3% of prewar levels last month, per the International Energy Agency.

3. The impact has been global. Concerns about supply shortages caused the price of food and other commodities like gasoline to spike, disproportionately affecting lower-income countries that import critical items from Ukraine and Russia. In Europe, officials are bracing for an energy crisis this winter as they try to transition away from the Russian natural gas that's typically heated their homes and businesses.

Looking ahead…the next six months of the war will hinge on whether Ukraine can muster a counteroffensive in the south, winning back territory and proving to the West that it's deserving of more military aid, Johns Hopkins professor Hal Brands argued in Bloomberg Opinion.

        

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Singapore skyline Roslan Rahman/AFP via Getty Images

Singapore will decriminalize sex between men. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the country will repeal a colonial-era law that makes sex between men a criminal act. "I believe this is the right thing to do and something that Singaporeans will accept," he said. LGBTQ advocacy groups applauded the repeal, which they'd long tried to accomplish via legal challenges. But in addition to his move to decriminalize gay sex, Lee said Singapore's constitution will be amended to define marriage as being between a man and a woman.

FTX made how much now? The crypto exchange's revenue grew more than 1,000% in 2021 from the previous year and it was also profitable, according to docs seen by CNBC. That's fueled a global advertising push and numerous acquisitions, including of floundering blockchain companies hit by the downturn in crypto prices. Meanwhile, FTX has been accused by the FDIC of "false and misleading claims" that implied some deposits were FDIC-insured.

A student loan announcement is imminent. Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said on Meet the Press that a highly anticipated decision on federal student loan payments would come "within the next week or so." A pause on student loan payments has been in effect since March 2020 after being extended several times, helping about 30 million borrowers boost their credit score. But with the moratorium expiring on August 31, it's crunchtime for the Biden administration to reveal whether borrowers can expect any forgiveness.

TOGETHER WITH CUTS

Suits are out, workleisure is in

Cuts

If you haven't updated your wardrobe since March 2020, consider this your official notice: It's time for a makeover.

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After upgrading the basic T-shirt, CUTS expanded their line with versatile pieces to take you from work to the weekend, including polos, joggers, jackets, and more. And now they're doing the same with a stylish women's line.

CUTS is celebrating their 6th anniversary with their biggest sale ever. Get up to 50% off this week only. Shop now.

        

ENVIRONMENT

Drying rivers reveal historical treasures

A hunger stone in Europe A hunger stone found in the Czech Republic. Vit Cerny/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

As droughts stalk the globe, drying rivers and watersheds have disrupted cargo flows in Europe, led Tesla and other manufacturers to suspend production in China, and forced American farmers to cut back on water use.

But shrinking water levels have also unearthed remarkable artifacts that were thought to have been lost to history.

Perhaps the most ominous findings are the "hunger stones" etched along the banks of central Europe's rivers. These inscriptions date back centuries, and generally offer the same message to future generations: "If the water is low enough for you to read this, prepare for pain."

Some other discoveries:

  • More than 20 Nazi warships, laden with explosives, were uncovered in Serbia as the Danube fell to its lowest level in nearly 100 years, per the Guardian.
  • Across Italy's shrinking river system, ruins of ancient civilizations have been discovered, including a bridge that may have been built by the Roman emperor Nero.
  • In the parched Yangtze River in China, three Buddhist statues believed to be 600 years old were found, per Reuters.
  • Five sets of human remains have been found as Lake Mead dries up in the Southwest US. Rumors are flowing that at least some are tied to mob activity in Las Vegas decades ago.

Zoom out: Who knows who or what we'll find sleeping with the fishes in the future. The number of droughts globally has jumped 29% since 2000 due to climate change and land degradation, the UN says.

        

CALENDAR

The week ahead

A bison walks in front of the Grand Tetons Getty Images

The Fed hits the Grand Tetons: Anyone know a good spot for après-monetary policy speech in Jackson Hole? On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a major talk there as part of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, an annual event where finance leaders across the globe chat about economic issues. The No. 1 issue this year, of course, is inflation.

College football is back: It's once again time to wrap bacon on other types of meat and then grill it because college football returns on Saturday. The biggest game of the week is Northwestern vs. Matty's beloved Nebraska—a Midwestern matchup that's actually being played in Dublin, Ireland. The marching bands better do a Hozier set during halftime.

Earnings: Feel like we've written "It's the grand finale of earnings season" for the past three weeks, but this time we actually mean it. With 95% of S&P companies having already reported, names like Nvidia, Peloton, Zoom, Dollar General, and Salesforce will bring down the curtain.

Everything else:

  • On Thursday, trigger bans on abortion will go into effect in Idaho, Tennessee, and Texas.
  • Tesla's 3–1 stock split goes into effect on Thursday.
  • Burning Man returns IRL on Sunday after a two-year break.

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

A man grilling while on the river with an American flag @julianlnorth via Giphy

Stat: "Made in America" is back, y'all. American companies are on pace to return 350,000 overseas jobs back to the US this year, according to the Reshoring Initiative. That'd be the most since the manufacturing lobbying group started tracking the data in 2010, when only 6,000 jobs were returned. Some reasons for the boom in reshoring include supply chain havoc from Covid and the war in Ukraine, as well as new government incentives for domestic production.

Quote: "I got permission to go to Russia to help that girl."

Dennis Rodman, self-styled US diplomat, told NBC News on Saturday that he's trying to go to Russia this week to secure the release of Brittney Griner, the WNBA star who's been sentenced to nine years in prison on drug charges. Rodman's become cozy with authoritarian leaders, especially North Korea's Kim Jong Un, and American Kenneth Bae thanked Rodman for being a "catalyst" in his 2014 release from North Korea.

Read: The evolutionary mystery of menopause. (Nautilus)

TOGETHER WITH APPLE ONE

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WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • 21 people were killed during a militant attack on a hotel in Mogadishu, Somalia. Islamist militant group al-Shabab claimed responsibility for the attack.
  • Wendy's locations in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will not put lettuce on sandwiches while the CDC investigates an E. coli outbreak that has sickened at least 37 people.
  • An Apple-1 Computer prototype used by Steve Jobs in the mid-'70s went for nearly $700,000 at auction.
  • Note: The Flow story in yesterday's Brew Review included a comment made by CEO Allison Byers to Bloomberg. Byers has since retracted her statement, and we've updated the article.

BREW'S BETS

Dive back into the week:

A very pretty penny: The latest addition to the Brewniverse, CFO Brew, is navigating the constantly evolving world of global finance, 2x a week. Check it out.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Turntable: Today's Turntable is extra spicy because there's a Z in it. Play Turntable here.

Spinoff trivia

HBO is trying to Make Sunday Nights Great Again with its Game of Thrones spinoff that premiered last night. We're trying to Make Trivia Great Again with a few questions about spinoffs.

We'll give you the name of a TV show that's a spinoff of a previous show. You have to name the OG show that spawned the new one.

  1. Better Call Saul
  2. Frasier
  3. Angel
  4. Laverne & Shirley
  5. The Hills

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ANSWER

  1. Breaking Bad
  2. Cheers
  3. Buffy the Vampire Slayer
  4. Happy Days
  5. Laguna Beach: The Real Orange County
         

Written by Neal Freyman

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